Tampilkan postingan dengan label Probability. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Probability. Tampilkan semua postingan

Jumat, 29 Juni 2012

Duelling idiots and other probability puzzlers

Ebook Download | Duelling idiots and other probability puzzlers | Books on probability are often boring. (Remember all those tedious problems involving people obsessed with drawing balls from urns?). In "Duelling Idiots", Nahin actually makes the subject fun by describing offbeat problems with unexpected solutions. If you like solving math puzzles, then this is a great book to look at. If you're teaching a course and want to assign a book that students might actually read, then look no further.




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Kamis, 14 Juni 2012

Foundations of Modern Probability, 2nd edition

Ebook Download | Foundations of Modern Probability, 2nd edition | This is the ultimate graduate textbook in probability. Said that it is important to notice this is not written for the people that have not had a senior level advanced probability course as a matter of fact few such courses.
It is hard to read for the proofs are lightning and lack all the details while the statements are as general and abstract as possible. It can put a serious strain on gaining intuitive understanding. Nevertheless I cannot imagine book any more comprehensive and significant than this one. Using this as a textbook on graduate level will require major input of the instructor and a serious effort for the students. One bad thing about the book is very dense typesetting that makes it not a very friendly reading.




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Boole's Logic and Probability

Ebook Download | Boole's Logic and Probability | Hailperin demonstrates how Boole's very difficult technique for solving problems in probability logic can be easily solved by using a linear programming approach , such as parametric and integer-mixed integer techniques.This approach makes the computation of Boolean probabilistic intervals straightforward.An additional benefit of Hailperin's solutions repertoire is that Keynes's improved technique for solving probabilistic interval estimate problems ,formally discussed by Keynes in chapters 15 and 17 of his A Treatise on Probablity in 1921(the actual work in this area was done by Keynes in 1907 and 1908,respectively,in his two Cambridge University fellowship theses)and applied in chapters 20 and 22 of the TP on pp.234-237 and pp.255-257,respectively,can also be solved using Hailperin's approach ,although Hailperin himself appears not to realize this.





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Minggu, 27 Mei 2012

Measure, Integral and Probability, 2nd edition

Ebook Download | Measure, Integral and Probability, 2nd edition | This book is, as it were, manna from heaven for the aspiring financial mathematician, especially someone without a first degree in mathematics or a mathematically-based subject. The only prerequisites are a very good understanding of set-theory and some knowledge of the theory of continuous functions (at the level of a first course in real analysis, e.g. Apostol's Mathematical Analysis). The development is patient and there is sufficient help for the beginner (full solutions at the back, and, for practice, unproved propositions in the text with proofs at chapter-ends). The coverage is not overwhelming and anyone with the requisite preparation can digest the book in a term's work. Measure theory on its own is an incredibly dry subject. The authors do a great job of covering the essentials in about 300 pages, while making the subject interesting and applicable at the same time. A very attractive feature of the book is its brief focus on mathematical-finance applications. Most chapters end with a small section on such applications which is very useful for someone simultaneously studying mathematical finance. Particularly, it shows how to conceptualize financial models measure-theoretically. A very useful little volume indeed!







Kamis, 24 Mei 2012

The Pleasures of Probability

Ebook Download | The Pleasures of Probability | Professor Isaac has written a book for those interested in learning about probability. It is at a high school algebra level although knowledge of calculus could be helpful at times. He starts with the now famous Monte Hall problem and provides the most lucid explanation I have seen to date. This is a great way to introduce important probability notions such as sample space and probability models for the sample outcomes. Deals mainly with discrete probability which is easiest to understand and yet rich with applications in gambling and other areas.
Important theory is presented but without the detailed mathematical proofs. Covers the gambler's ruin, geometric probability, Monte Carlo methods and some statistical decision theory. He also presents both the frequentist (throughout the text)and the Bayesian paradigms (Chapter 4) for statistical inference. Examples of the application of probability to statistical inference is nicely treated in Chapter 15. The deeper material on Markov chains and Brownian motion are relegated to the last two chapters (16 and 17). The exposition is excellent throughout and many good references are provided for readers who want to learn more or delve deeper into the theory.






Minggu, 20 Mei 2012

Probability for Statisticians

Ebook Download | Probability for Statisticians | Galen Shorack is a statistics professor at the University of Washington. He specializes in empirical processes and probability theory. He and Wellner wrote a mammoth treatise on empirical processes that was well received. This book is very well written. It covers the basics for a standard advanced probability course very well. What sets it apart from most of its competition is its emphasis on applications to statistical inference.
Probability theory and empirical process theory in particular, are useful in proving consistency results about the bootstrap. So it is therefore no surprise that the bootstrap is covered in this book. Shorack provides a very lucid introduction to bootstrapping and on page 432 covers both the bootstrap principle and the weak bootstrap principle. In cases where the bootstrap principle can be verified, we are assured that the Monte Carlo approximation to the bootstrap works with probability one (i.e. it can only fail for data sets with zero probability of occurrence, fails on sets of probability measure zero in the jargon of probabilists). The practical implications of this is that you can apply it to the particular data set that you use the bootstrap on. The weak bootstrap applies a weaker convergence concept and is less useful because it only guarantees that the Monte Carlo approximation will work on most data sets that are drawn at random from a population with distribution F. It is less desirable because it provides no guarantee for the particular data set that you actually draw!